Navigating climate policy shocks: optimal monetary policy responses

Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate. Published on 09 October 2026

Staff Working Paper No. 1,211

Marco Carli, Francesca Diluiso and Mathias Hoffmann

How should monetary policy respond to climate policy shocks? We develop an Environmental New-Keynesian model with green and fossil energy to assess the macroeconomic impacts of carbon pricing and green subsidy shocks and to identify the optimal monetary policy responses. Our findings indicate that these shocks create a policy trade-off between stabilizing inflation and the output gap. This trade-off is resolved in favor of output-gap stabilization, with optimal monetary policy focusing on dampening real output fluctuations while temporarily looking through inflation movements. Dual mandate Taylor rules yield lower welfare costs than inflation-only targeting rules and align the welfare performances of core and headline inflation targeting regimes.

Navigating climate policy shocks: optimal monetary policy responses 

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